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Tropical Atlantic showing warning signs

Tropical Atlantic showing warning signs
Weather Talk

POSTED: Thursday, July 21, 2011 - 12:10am

UPDATED: Thursday, July 21, 2011 - 6:43pm

The Atlantic Basin now has two active tropical systems spinning their way toward the NE.  The question is, has the flip been switched in the Atlantic?  The climatilogical peak of the hurricane season is around September 10th, so we still have about 50 days until then.  However, models are starting to develop systems on a weekly basis, and upon analyzing some charts, it appears that the Atlantic Ocean may be priming itself for the peak months.  Wind shear is starting to decrease around the Caribbean and in the Gulf of Mexico.  The waters have been warm enough for weeks, so we now have a couple of ingredients ripe for development.

Notice the graphic below, this is the probability of development for the Atlantic.  You can clearly see Bret and Cindy on it, but notice the bullseye to the east of the Lesser Antilles.  That is yet another wave that some models are developing over the next 4-5 days.

Also, notice the wind shear tendency graphic, the blue areas with the dotted lines are favorable for development.  You can see that the map is showing more blue colors as we have gotten deeper into the season, especially in the MDR (Main Development Region).

We are always tracking the tropics here in the STORMTRACKER33 Weather Center.  Stay with us for up to date information on any development in the Atlantic Basin.

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