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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 7 min 38 sec ago

NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 11, 2014 - 12:10am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure extending
from the coast of Nicaragua to a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is limited at this time. Development of
this system is not likely during the next couple of days, however,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development of this system by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 9:32pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 6:33pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 6:11pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms continue in association
with a trough of low pressure extending from near the coast of
Nicaragua to a few hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico.
Development of this system is not likely during the next couple of
days, however, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for some development of this system by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 6:08pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Fay, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. Further development is possible over the
weekend, with environmental conditions becoming more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by early next week. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph for the next
couple of days and interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
west of the Cape Verde Islands are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not favorable, and significant
development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 3:57pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...Corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Corrected to change category of first system from low to medium

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Subtropical Depression Seven located several hundred miles
south of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is associated with
a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 1:04pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...Corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Corrected to change category of first system from low to medium

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Subtropical Depression Seven located several hundred miles
south of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is associated with
a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 12:53pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms continue in association
with a trough of low pressure extending from near the coast of
Central America to a few hundred miles south of southeastern
Mexico. Development of this system is not likely during the next
couple of days, however, environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of this system by early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 12:51pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...Corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Corrected to change category of first system from low to medium

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Subtropical Depression Seven located several hundred miles
south of Bermuda.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed
little in organization today. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is associated with
a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not
favorable, and significant development of this system is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 9:47am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure system located about 625 miles south
of Bermuda are becoming better organized, and a subtropical
depression or storm could be forming. If this trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward at 10 to
15 mph during the next couple of days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located about 700
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves moves westward or west-
northwestward to west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 6:51am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure system located about 625 miles south
of Bermuda are becoming better organized, and a subtropical
depression or storm could be forming. If this trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward at 10 to
15 mph during the next couple of days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located about 700
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves moves westward or west-
northwestward to west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 6:41am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue in association with an
elongated area of low pressure centered south of the coast of El
Salvador. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next several days while it drifts west-northwestward. Regardless of
development, this system will produce isolated areas of heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 12:03am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue in association with a
broad area of low pressure centered south of the coast of El
Salvador. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it drifts west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 10, 2014 - 12:01am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located about
350 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become a little better defined. This system is interacting
with an upper-level low and is producing showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the north and east of the center. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next day or
so while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 6:43pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers continue in association with a
broad area of low pressure located south of the coast of El
Salvador. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it drifts west-northwestward.
Regardless of development, this system will produce locally heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 6:41pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 12:30pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located near the Pacific coast of
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible through the weekend
while it drifts west-northwestward. Regardless of development,
this system will produce locally heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 12:27pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 6:54am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located near the Pacific coast of
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is possible through the weekend
while it drifts west-northwestward. Regardless of development,
this system will produce locally heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 9, 2014 - 6:53am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg