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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 18 min 36 sec ago

NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 18, 2014 - 12:31am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands. The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days. Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 9:38pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized. This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 6:33pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands is currently minimal. No significant development is
expected during the next two days, but conditions could become a
little more favorable by later in the week as the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 6:32pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized. This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 3:41pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 12:31pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization. Only a
slight increase in thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today or tonight while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 12:21pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
centered midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands has not become any better organized since yesterday. No
significant development is expected during the next two days, but
conditions could become a little more favorable by later in the week
as the system moves slowly westward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 9:40am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located almost 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and has become a
little better organized this morning, and environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 6:17am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located midway between the Lesser Antilles
and the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 6:10am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located almost 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and has become a
little better organized this morning, and environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 3:33am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while the low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 12:32am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located a little more than a thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while the low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 17, 2014 - 12:31am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it begins to move slowly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 9:33pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 6:44pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it begins to move slowly
westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 6:33pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
low moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 3:39pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Shower activity has increased since yesterday and
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development during the next several days while the low moves
generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 12:45pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Shower activity has increased since yesterday and
environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development during the next several days while the low moves
generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 12:41pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure centered
between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands has
diminished. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 16, 2014 - 9:34am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located about 500 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, is producing a large but disorganized area of showers
and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible
through the middle of next week while it moves generally westward
or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila