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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 12 min 22 sec ago

NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 6:41pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. A large low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is moving west-northwestward at about 10
mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and
organization during the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for a tropical depression to
form during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 3:47pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 12:53pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 12:52pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 12:31pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located near 800
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
have increased this morning. Although there are no signs of
organization yet, conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 9:36am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 6:49am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 6:22am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for this system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of
the week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 3:42am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 12:33am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this
system to develop into a tropical depression by the end of the week
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 20, 2014 - 12:32am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity is currently limited in association with an
elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, should be slow
to occur during the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 9:37pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. Satellite data along with ship and buoy observations indicate that
a broad low pressure system has developed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for this system to develop into a tropical
depression by the end of this week while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 6:40pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 3:51pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 3:38pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 1:12pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 12:44pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located a little
more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 9:35am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 700
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Pacific is associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next day or two, and environmental conditions
are conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 6:48am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

August 19, 2014 - 6:38am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east of the Big
Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about 700
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Pacific is associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next day or two, and environmental conditions
are conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila