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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 27 min 26 sec ago

NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 6:54pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1350 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at around 10 mph during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Iselle are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Iselle are
issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP4.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 6:43pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this afternoon and
evening investigated the well-defined low pressure system located
about 350 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and found surface winds
of 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms have increased east of the
center during the past couple of hours, and if this development
trend continues a tropical storm could form later tonight or early
Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are likely to
spread across portions of the central Lesser Antilles beginning by
midday Friday. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward near
20 mph, since watches or warnings could be required for some of
these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 3:37pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave. Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 3:15pm





SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has continued to investigate the
low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Observations from the aircraft indicate that this system
is producing winds of up to 40 to 45 mph in the northern portion of
the circulation. Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop over
the low tonight or Friday, which could result in tropical cyclone
formation. Regardless of development, winds of gale force are
likely to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning
early Friday. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward near 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later tonight or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 3:04pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave. Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 1:05pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently begun investigating the
low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the southern
Windward Islands. Preliminary reports from the aircraft indicate
that this system is producing winds to near gale force. However,
satellite images indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms have diminished significantly since this morning.
Therefore the low currently does not meet the criteria to designate
it as a tropical cyclone. Showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop later today or tonight, which could result in tropical
cyclone formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 12:45pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a tropical
wave. Some gradual development is possible during the next few days
while this system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 8:45am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 6:38am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 6:35am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 2:48am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 12:40am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little in association
with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development of this system during
the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. An area of low pressure located about 1600 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Any development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next few days while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 31, 2014 - 12:38am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little
in association with a well-defined low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. In addition, winds
to near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just
north of the center. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in
organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm during the next day or so. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 8:40pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized. However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 6:35pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized. However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1700 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 6:22pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system
located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 2:46pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Although the
disturbance is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
should support the gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 12:46pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Although the
disturbance is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
should support the gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch


NHC Atlantic Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 12:39pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
been gradually decreasing since yesterday. However, environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for the development of this
system into a tropical depression during the next couple of days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system as it moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

July 30, 2014 - 10:20am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions should support the gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch