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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 13 min 40 sec ago

NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 11:30pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 8:56pm





SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche

1. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern
Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during
the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,
tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening
or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system
as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 7:51pm





SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the
Bay of Campeche

1. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern
Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during
the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues,
tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening
or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system
as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 5:41pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in
the southern Bay of Campeche have not become any better organized
during the past few hours. However, upper-level winds could become
more conducive for development later tonight and Wednesday, and this
system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or
early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation
appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the
system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche
and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued
with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 5:03pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 2:26pm





SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update first system

1. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well-
defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the
thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough
for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level
winds could become more conducive for further development by
tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche
late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical
cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with
a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm
warnings could need to be issued with short notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is
producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west-
southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation
by Thursday and development after that time is not likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 11:44am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area in the far southern Bay of Campeche continues to
produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for development by
tomorrow, and this system still has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the
week, the low also has some potential for development over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea if it remains separate from a cold front.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the disturbance. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is
producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical
characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west-
southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation
by Thursday and development after that time is not likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 11:41am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 5:53am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system
is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves
slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 21, 2014 - 5:22am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 11:02pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across
the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast
to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 11:00pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 5:33pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little
in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential
to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later
in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge
with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is becoming less likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 5:31pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 11:49am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 11:35am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 5:52am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during
the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to
east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a
frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 20, 2014 - 5:38am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NNNN


NHC Atlantic Outlook

October 19, 2014 - 11:16pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brennan


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

October 19, 2014 - 11:02pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN