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National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
Updated: 19 min 25 sec ago

NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 30, 2014 - 6:38am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the shower activity has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form later this week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 30, 2014 - 6:37am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Avila


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 30, 2014 - 3:34am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 30, 2014 - 12:35am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance should produce locally
heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash
flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 30, 2014 - 12:20am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located just to the northwest of Bermuda is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms while it moves slowly
northward. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated due to increasingly strong upper-level winds. The low
should move northward to north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed over the next couple of days, and could still
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda this
morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 9:38pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 6:46pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in association with a
low pressure area located just west-northwest of Bermuda.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated due to
increasingly strong upper-level winds. This low should move
generally northward during the next couple of days at a faster
forward speed. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds across Bermuda
overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Blake


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 6:15pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 3:35pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 12:51pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 12:43pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 9:53am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 6:59am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have become a little better organized
overnight and this morning. This system could become a subtropical
cyclone today before upper-level winds become unfavorable tonight
and Tuesday. This system is expected to move northwestward and then
northward during the next couple of days with increasing forward
speed. Regardless of development, the low will produce locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 6:53am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southern Mexico southeastward for several
hundred miles is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 3:33am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 12:33am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 29, 2014 - 12:30am





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing showers
and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a little better
organized over the past several hours, upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while the
low moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days. Regardless of development, this system will produce
locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda for the next
day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 28, 2014 - 9:58pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


NHC Atlantic Outlook

September 28, 2014 - 6:14pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located near Bermuda is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
expected to be unfavorable for significant development while this
system moves slowly northwestward or northward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi


NHC Eastern Pacific Outlook

September 28, 2014 - 6:12pm





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the coast of southeastern Mexico southward for several
hundred miles is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become conducive
for development over the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form around the middle part of the week while the
system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward just offshore of
the south-central coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart