New iPhones haven't saved Apple's stock
POSTED: Thursday, October 10, 2013 - 11:00pm
UPDATED: Thursday, October 10, 2013 - 11:04pm
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Despite glowing reviews and strong sales, new iPhones haven't done anything to get Apple's stock out of the doldrums.
In fact, Apple's stock is trading 4 percent below where it was a month ago -- the day that Apple unveiled the iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C.
Surprised? You shouldn't be. As CNNMoney has previously reported, it's just history repeating itself.
This marks the sixth of the past seven years in which Apple's stock has ended up lower a month after the new iPhone was revealed. And in 2011 -- the one year that Apple's stock actually finished higher after an iPhone release -- it still pulled back sharply from its initial post-iPhone bump.
Take a look:
2013: Shares of Apple tumbled 11 percent over the course of a week after the iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C were unveiled. Shares have recovered some since then, but they're still in the red since Sept. 10. 2012: Apple's stock rose 3 percent in the four trading days after CEO Tim Cook unveiled the iPhone 5. But a month after the announcement, Apple shares were down 8 percent. 2011: In the two weeks after Apple unveiled the iPhone 4S in October 2011, Apple's stock soared 13 percent. But it dipped after that. Two weeks later, the stock was only 8 percent higher than on day one. (Of course, Steve Jobs' death only a day after the iPhone 4S was unveiled quickly overshadowed much of the buzz around the iPhone and its then-new Siri feature) 2010: The stock rose 9 percent during the week and a half after the iPhone 4 was unveiled. But the stock was 1 percent lower a month after the announcement. 2009: Apple shares didn't move too much shortly after the company announced the iPhone 3GS -- but shares were down 4 percent a month after the 3GS news. 2008: Shares rose 2 percent the day after the iPhone 3G was unveiled but were down 1 percent a month after the announcement. 2007: The stock gained 5 percent in the week after Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone. But three weeks later, shares had fallen by 7 percent.
But is this just coincidence? Did Apple's stock really fall because the company couldn't live up to iPhone hype? Or was there something bigger going on with the market at those particular points of time?
Let's look at how the tech-heavy Nasdaq -- of which Apple is a big part -- did in those post iPhone periods.
2013: Nasdaq flat, Apple down 4 percent 2012: Nasdaq down 4 percent, Apple down 8 percent. 2011: Nasdaq up 12 percent, Apple up 8 percent. 2010: Nasdaq down 3 percent, Apple down 1 percent. 2009: Nasdaq down 6 percent, Apple down 4 percent. 2008: Nasdaq down 9 percent, Apple down 1 percent. 2007: Nasdaq up 7 percent, Apple down 7 percent.
That shows no discernible trend. Apple outperformed the Nasdaq a month after the iPhone was unveiled three times out of seven. In the other four years, Apple lagged.
That's why some analysts consider Apple's share price drops following iPhone announcements to be meaningless.
"I think the stock movement is somewhat random," said Trip Chowdhry, managing director of Global Equities Research, last month.
But others argue that there are legitimate reasons for Apple's stock to fall after iPhone announcements.
"I don't think it's random," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, a month ago. "We have seen this before. There is so much hoopla with Apple, but soon after the news comes out, there's not as much reason to be excited anymore."