Despite a very impressive satellite presentation, Ernesto has weakened as of the 10am NHC update down to 50 mph winds. Here's the latest cone, and as you can see it is forecast to track right over the heart of the Yucatan Peninsula. If this occurs, it will dramatically interrupt the formation and knock it down to only tropical storm status once back in the Gulf of Mexico. After that, it could slowly regroup.

Track Ernesto and Florence on our interactive hurricane tracker: www.nbc33tv.com/weather/hurricane-tracker